Track record

We Said It Before the Move.

Name: InsiderWatch alert track record
Creator: InsiderWatch

Real alerts, graded by the market itself. Every call below is a recorded outcome: what we flagged, and what the stock did over the window that kind of catalyst takes to play out. No screenshots, no testimonials.

As of August 6, 2026: an example $10,000 portfolio following every alert since July 1, 2026, split evenly across whichever alerts were open, stands at $14,121 (+41%) across 181 scored alerts, misses included. Hypothetical; updated automatically after every trading day.

What $10,000 Following Every Alert Looks Like.

One example $10,000 balance, split evenly across every alert open at the time, replayed day by day from our recorded outcomes, next to the same $10,000 simply holding the S&P 500. The gray bars show new positions entering; the blue strip shows how many alerts the balance was spread across.

Median speed: alerts go out 1 minute after the source publishes.

$10,000 following every alert

Every scored alert since July 1, 2026, misses included · two ways to follow them

$14,121+41.2%

Split evenly (every alert) 10% cash per alert (93 taken, 88 skipped) Holding the S&P 500 New positions per day Alerts open per day

Balance

$14,121

+41.2% all time

Cash account

$12,184

+21.8% · 88 skipped

S&P 500

$10,336

+3.4%

Alerts

181

misses included

Avg move

+2.6%

per alert

Max drawdown

-4.1%

peak to trough

How this is calculated: both lines start at $10,000 on July 1, 2026, and each alert becomes a position on its entry day (an alert sent after market close enters on the next trading day) and closes at its graded exit, win or lose - no discretion, nothing picked after the fact. The green line takes every scored alert, splitting the balance equally across all open positions and rebalancing daily. The blue line is one disciplined account: each alert gets 10% of the portfolio paid from cash, positions are held untouched to their exits, and when cash runs out the next alerts are skipped in strict arrival order (88 skipped so far) - the skips use no hindsight, so the line cannot cherry-pick winners. Both are hypothetical illustrations: entries use the price recorded when the alert was sent (overnight gaps on after-hours alerts are not captured), and fees, slippage, and taxes are excluded. Not investment advice or an offer of performance.

+80.0%

$ADTXCALLED BEARISH

Aditxt, Inc.

Flagged a Nasdaq delisting warning

ADTX fell 80.0% after we called it · Jun 24

+4.8%

$GOOGLCALLED BULLISH

Alphabet Inc.

Called Google bullish on Trump's EU tariff threat

GOOGL rose 4.8% after we called it · Jun 26

+8.7%

$CRSPCALLED BULLISH

CRISPR Therapeutics AG

Called CRISPR bullish on an FDA label expansion

CRSP rose 8.7% after we called it · Jul 1

+35.5%

$NVCTCALLED BEARISH

Nuvectis Pharma, Inc.

Flagged a dilutive share offering

NVCT fell 35.5% after we called it · Jun 29

+3.3%

$HONCALLED BULLISH

Honeywell International Inc.

Called Honeywell bullish on a policy move

HON rose 3.3% after we called it · Jul 2

+3.9%

$AMCCALLED BEARISH

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.

Flagged dilution risk at AMC

AMC fell 3.9% after we called it · Jun 23

Green number = the size of the move in the direction we called.

Wins on record

132

Biggest win

+208.2%

Avg winning move

+8.9%

Wins are alerts whose stock moved in the called direction within its catalyst-matched window, scored automatically against market prices, across our full history since July 1, 2026. The earliest alerts were scored on a single next-day close.

The Record, Cut Deeper

How the Signal Breaks Down

The scored ledger read a few more ways: whether the calls add up over time, where the model’s stated confidence earns it, which company sizes the signal reads best, and how fast alerts follow their source. Hit-rate cuts count the calls today’s rules would still make; the running-total line replays every scored alert as sent.

Cumulative Capture

Signed percentage points per scored signal, summed over time. Not a compounding portfolio.

Final

+462.5 pts

Best point

+537.2 pts

Worst point

+4.4 pts

Signals

183

scored

Every scored alert since July 1, 2026, in send order, misses included.

By Model Confidence

Direction hit rate by stated confidence, over calls kept by current rules.

High

14 scored

64% hit

Medium

94 scored

67% hit

The dashed line marks a 50% hit rate.

Confidence tiers

108 scored

Overall

67%

weighted hit rate

Strongest

67%

Medium

Weakest

64%

High

By Company Size

Direction hit rate by market value at send, over calls kept by current rules.

Under $300M

7 scored

71% hit

$300M to $2B

24 scored

63% hit

$2B to $10B

27 scored

70% hit

Over $10B

22 scored

55% hit

The dashed line marks a 50% hit rate.

Size buckets

80 scored

Overall

64%

weighted hit rate

Strongest

71%

Under $300M

Weakest

55%

Over $10B

Speed to Alert

From source publication to alert send.

Under 1 Min

1 to 5 Min

188

5 to 15 Min

15 to 60 Min

1 to 6 Hours

Measured

306

alerts

Median

1 min

Only alerts whose source publishes a timestamp are measured; lags beyond six hours are treated as stale-feed artifacts and left out.

Most Services Show You Their Winners. We Publish Everything.

Every alert we send joins the ledger below once its window closes: hits, misses, and the ones too small to grade. That’s how you know the wins above are real.

120 alerts still developing inside their grading window. The ledger updates automatically as each one resolves.

The Full Ledger · every alert since July 1, 2026, misses included

Hit rate · current rules

68%72 of 106 calls

Today’s alert rules, backtested over our full scored history. Every graded call, kept by the current rules or not, stays in the ledger below.

Scored

181

Calls kept by current rules

106of 181

Median move captured

+1.7%

Avg move per signal

+2.6%

How the numbers work: every alert is measured from the price when it was sent (that day’s close for the earliest alerts, before send-time prices were recorded) across the window that kind of catalyst takes to price in, not a single next day. Within that window we take a first-touch read: the first close to reach a favorable move counts as the thesis playing out (Target hit), the first to reach an equal-sized adverse move counts against us (Stopped), and if neither is reached the alert is graded on the window’s final close (Flat). The band is symmetric and scaled to each stock’s own volatility, so it can’t flatter the result. Alerts whose stock barely moved (under 0.5%), traded too thinly to read cleanly, or stopped trading entirely are recorded but kept out of the hit rate. Insider sell-cluster alerts are also kept out of the headline rate: informative insider selling plays out over months (they still appear in the breakdown and ledger below). The current-rules figure reruns these same grades counting only the calls today’s tighter rules would still make. Counting every directional call we ever sent, including ones the current rules no longer make, the all-history rate is 58% over the 181 scored calls in the ledger below.

Offering / dilution46 scored70% hit+3.3%
Other33 scored64% hit+4.1%
M&A target14 scored64% hit+0.7%
Distress / delisting11 scored64% hit+2.1%
Policy / macro3 scored67% hit+2.7%
Enforcement1 scored100% hit+4.8%

Sent (ET)	Ticker	Call	Event	At send	Move	Result
Aug 3, 5:05 PM	STOKStoke Therapeutics, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$28.71	+3.0%	Stopped
Aug 3, 9:30 AM	SWKSSkyworks Solutions, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$61.30	+9.0%	Stopped
Aug 3, 6:19 AM	ECHOEchoStar Corp	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$85.83	+6.7%	Stopped
Aug 3, 6:14 AM	GMEGameStop Corp	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$20.68	-7.8%	Target hit
Aug 2, 12:45 PM	BEBloom Energy Corp	BEARISH	Enforcement	$201.56	+13.2%	Stopped
Aug 1, 10:07 PM	CVXChevron Corp	BEARISH	Policy / macro	$198.49	-2.7%	Target hit
Jul 31, 5:12 PM	HRHealthcare Realty Trust Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$20.72	-2.2%	Target hit
Jul 31, 4:58 PM	TET1 Energy Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$4.16	+18.8%	Stopped
Jul 31, 4:33 PM	BBAIBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$2.67	+7.1%	Stopped
Jul 31, 4:18 PM	CCHHCCH Holdings Ltd	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$1.35	-1.5%	Flat
Jul 31, 4:12 PM	HLXHelix Energy Solutions Group Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$9.32	+3.0%	Stopped
Jul 31, 4:10 PM	FCPTFour Corners Property Trust, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$25.60	-1.7%	Flat
Jul 31, 3:15 PM	CRWVCoreWeave, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$72.23	+18.7%	Stopped
Jul 31, 1:32 PM	IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$88.93	-0.3%	not graded
Jul 31, 1:28 PM	LKQLKQ Corp	BEARISH	Other	$22.38	+4.4%	Stopped
Jul 31, 12:09 PM	ABBVAbbVie Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$253.85	-3.5%	Target hit
Jul 31, 11:18 AM	BABoeing Co	BEARISH	Other	$211.84	+10.2%	Stopped
Jul 31, 8:03 AM	WLDSWearable Devices Ltd.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$3.26	-21.5%	Target hit
Jul 31, 7:33 AM	NVONovo Nordisk A S	BEARISH	Other	$46.03	-3.8%	Target hit
Jul 30, 5:04 PM	NUAINew Era Energy & Digital, Inc.	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$4.78	+6.7%	Flat
Jul 30, 9:14 AM	LPROOpen Lending Corp	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$3.14	-0.0%	not graded
Jul 30, 6:04 AM	HLIHoulihan Lokey, Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$131.49	-4.6%	Target hit
Jul 30, 6:04 AM	PPCPilgrims Pride Corp	BEARISH	Other	n/a	-6.8%	Target hit
Jul 30, 3:56 AM	STLAStellantis N.v.	BEARISH	Other	$6.06	-5.0%	Target hit
Jul 29, 4:10 PM	HCAHca Healthcare, Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$408.18	-3.0%	Target hit

Show All 199 Signals

Sent (ET)	Ticker	Call	Event	At send	Move	Result
Jul 29, 4:03 PM	QCOMQualcomm Inc/De	BEARISH	Other	$149.65	+1.3%	Flat
Jul 29, 1:07 PM	HIMSHims & Hers Health, Inc.	BEARISH	Enforcement	$26.20	+17.6%	Stopped
Jul 29, 1:05 PM	LXFRLuxfer Holdings PLC	BULLISH	Other	$17.08	+0.3%	not graded
Jul 29, 12:13 PM	CATCaterpillar Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$778.27	+4.7%	Stopped
Jul 29, 11:29 AM	ARECAmerican Resources Corp	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$1.66	+9.9%	Stopped
Jul 29, 10:06 AM	CAPRCapricor Therapeutics, Inc.	BEARISH	Other	n/a	-36.2%	Target hit
Jul 29, 9:36 AM	HUMHumana Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$383.73	-4.8%	Target hit
Jul 29, 7:17 AM	PGProcter & Gamble Co	BEARISH	Other	$143.57	+1.0%	Flat
Jul 29, 7:03 AM	YUMYum Brands Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$150.50	+4.3%	Stopped
Jul 28, 4:43 PM	AVTXAvalo Therapeutics, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$19.52	-0.7%	Flat
Jul 28, 4:33 PM	TRSTTrustco Bank Corp N Y	BULLISH	Other	$57.78	-3.1%	Stopped
Jul 28, 4:18 PM	WELLWelltower Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$242.00	-2.6%	Target hit
Jul 28, 8:16 AM	DXDynex Capital Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$12.68	+1.1%	Flat
Jul 28, 7:35 AM	BABoeing Co	BEARISH	Other	$213.76	+3.6%	Stopped
Jul 28, 7:32 AM	KZIAKazia Therapeutics LTD	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	n/a	-5.2%	Target hit
Jul 28, 7:01 AM	CORZCore Scientific, Inc./tx	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$22.30	-7.0%	Target hit
Jul 27, 8:49 AM	AUBAtlantic Union Bankshares Corp	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$42.29	+0.8%	Flat
Jul 27, 8:45 AM	AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$15.06	-1.5%	Flat
Jul 27, 6:47 AM	PLNHPlanet 13 Holdings Inc.	BULLISH	M&A target	n/a	-2.5%	not graded
Jul 27, 1:04 AM	FBRXForte Biosciences, Inc.	BULLISH	M&A target	$54.80	+39.6%	Target hit
Jul 24, 5:25 PM	ONDSOndas Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$7.82	+0.5%	Flat
Jul 24, 5:20 PM	DFNST3 Defense Inc.	BULLISH	Other	$4.25	+208.2%	Target hit
Jul 24, 4:32 PM	GPROGoPro, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$0.69	+5.1%	Flat
Jul 24, 4:12 PM	ARRArmour Residential Reit, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$16.26	+0.9%	Flat
Jul 24, 4:04 PM	EPRTEssential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$32.34	-0.7%	Flat
Jul 24, 4:03 PM	MNKDMannkind Corp	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$4.13	-5.3%	Target hit
Jul 24, 2:48 PM	CVXChevron Corp	BEARISH	Policy / macro	$195.07	-2.6%	Target hit
Jul 24, 12:14 PM	PNFPPinnacle Financial Partners, Inc.	BULLISH	Other	$100.24	+7.3%	Target hit
Jul 24, 6:04 AM	SHMDSchmid Group N.v.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	n/a	-2.5%	Flat
Jul 24, 6:01 AM	NNOXNano-X Imaging Ltd.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$0.99	-9.2%	Target hit
Jul 23, 4:34 PM	SMMTSummit Therapeutics Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$14.06	+6.5%	Stopped
Jul 23, 4:23 PM	TRVTravelers Companies, Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$376.37	+5.5%	Stopped
Jul 23, 4:06 PM	BYRNByrna Technologies Inc.	BULLISH	Other	$3.49	+24.1%	Target hit
Jul 23, 10:01 AM	TSLATesla, Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$327.23	-5.5%	Target hit
Jul 23, 8:33 AM	USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$15.60	-9.3%	Target hit
Jul 23, 7:15 AM	AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$14.32	-5.3%	Target hit
Jul 22, 4:43 PM	WFRDWeatherford International plc	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$86.40	+2.6%	Flat
Jul 22, 4:25 PM	IBMInternational Business Machines Corp	BEARISH	Other	$212.15	+1.9%	Flat
Jul 22, 4:06 PM	FSBCFive Star Bancorp	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$47.42	+2.0%	Stopped
Jul 22, 11:05 AM	RDDTReddit, Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$168.21	+6.5%	Stopped
Jul 22, 8:52 AM	LBRXLB Pharmaceuticals Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$32.51	+10.2%	Stopped
Jul 22, 8:36 AM	APXTApex Treasury Corp	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$10.23	-1.0%	Flat
Jul 21, 6:55 PM	TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries LTD	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$31.48	-4.2%	Stopped
Jul 21, 5:29 PM	RCTRedCloud Holdings plc	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$0.23	-8.9%	Target hit
Jul 21, 5:23 PM	DYNDyne Therapeutics, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$21.25	+12.1%	Stopped
Jul 21, 4:11 PM	FCBCFirst Community Bankshares Inc /Va/	BULLISH	Other	$44.63	+5.1%	Target hit
Jul 21, 4:02 PM	PAYXPaychex Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$111.96	+9.1%	Stopped
Jul 21, 9:08 AM	INTCIntel Corp	BULLISH	Other	$102.40	-9.8%	Stopped
Jul 20, 6:09 PM	ARTVArtiva Biotherapeutics, Inc.	BULLISH	Other	$9.12	+21.4%	Target hit
Jul 20, 5:03 PM	NUENucor Corp	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$230.80	+2.2%	Flat
Jul 20, 5:01 PM	SAPUYSaputo Inc./ADR	BULLISH	Policy / macro	n/a	+0.0%	not graded
Jul 20, 5:01 PM	BF-ABrown Forman Corp	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$27.03	-0.5%	not graded
Jul 20, 4:17 PM	CVXChevron Corp	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$189.71	+1.7%	Flat
Jul 20, 4:16 PM	ASTSAst SpaceMobile, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$57.42	+10.3%	Stopped
Jul 20, 4:13 PM	CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$56.00	-7.5%	Target hit
Jul 20, 3:44 PM	AAAlcoa Corp	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$43.50	+6.1%	Target hit
Jul 20, 1:19 PM	WBDWarner Bros. Discovery, Inc.	BEARISH	M&A target	$26.55	-2.6%	Target hit
Jul 20, 10:37 AM	JBLUJetblue Airways Corp	BULLISH	Other	$5.43	-8.1%	Stopped
Jul 20, 9:04 AM	AMDAdvanced Micro Devices Inc.	BULLISH	Other	$520.52	+3.7%	Flat
Jul 20, 7:13 AM	MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas Corp	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$27.50	-7.2%	Target hit
Jul 20, 6:44 AM	DPZDominos Pizza Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$345.05	-4.7%	Target hit
Jul 20, 5:30 AM	TSLATesla, Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$381.86	-16.3%	Target hit
Jul 20, 5:30 AM	RYAAYRyanair Holdings PLC	BEARISH	Other	$60.10	-6.2%	Target hit
Jul 19, 7:12 PM	TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co LTD	BULLISH	Other	$397.72	+6.8%	Target hit
Jul 19, 2:13 PM	LMTLockheed Martin Corp	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$509.40	+1.0%	Flat
Jul 17, 8:12 PM	LILALiberty Latin America Ltd.	BULLISH	Other	$7.34	+16.1%	Target hit
Jul 17, 5:13 PM	PENGPenguin Solutions, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$60.05	-11.4%	Target hit
Jul 17, 5:01 PM	DBVTDBV Technologies S.a.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$14.70	-3.3%	Flat
Jul 17, 4:21 PM	XERSXeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$8.80	-0.2%	not graded
Jul 17, 4:19 PM	SPIRSpire Global, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$12.20	-10.2%	Target hit
Jul 17, 4:13 PM	NFLXNetflix Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$69.08	-0.8%	Flat
Jul 17, 4:05 PM	STDNStandard Nuclear, Inc.	BULLISH	Other	$10.60	-27.4%	Stopped
Jul 17, 2:03 PM	BABoeing Co	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$215.29	-2.7%	Stopped
Jul 17, 11:03 AM	MRKMerck & Co., Inc.	BULLISH	Other	$131.36	-2.9%	Stopped
Jul 17, 2:26 AM	ITAAerospace & Defense ETF	BULLISH	Other	$230.95	+0.1%	not graded
Jul 16, 9:56 PM	CVXChevron Corp	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$183.66	+2.0%	Target hit
Jul 16, 7:03 PM	NVSNovartis AG	BULLISH	Other	$153.19	-2.4%	Stopped
Jul 16, 5:02 PM	USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc.	BULLISH	Other	$15.99	-1.2%	Flat
Jul 16, 4:46 PM	ARRYArray Technologies, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$6.25	-4.8%	Flat
Jul 16, 4:37 PM	SRXHSRX Global Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$2.39	-9.2%	Flat
Jul 16, 4:34 PM	RGNXRegenxbio Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$9.59	+16.8%	Stopped
Jul 16, 4:27 PM	RUBIRubico Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$3.34	-21.6%	Target hit
Jul 16, 4:11 PM	ARCBArcbest Corp /De/	BEARISH	Other	$157.61	+2.1%	Flat
Jul 16, 4:06 PM	INBXInhibrx Biosciences, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$89.07	-5.6%	Target hit
Jul 16, 8:44 AM	GOOGLAlphabet Inc.	BEARISH	Enforcement	$372.40	-4.8%	Target hit
Jul 16, 7:49 AM	MRKMerck & Co., Inc.	BULLISH	Other	$124.99	+1.0%	Flat
Jul 16, 7:32 AM	ABUSArbutus Biopharma Corp	BEARISH	Other	$4.60	-4.1%	Target hit
Jul 16, 6:47 AM	LLYEli Lilly & Co	BULLISH	M&A target	$1150.20	-0.3%	not graded
Jul 16, 6:05 AM	ASPIAsp Isotopes Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$4.66	-15.4%	Target hit
Jul 16, 6:04 AM	CASTFreeCast, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$2.60	-2.0%	Flat
Jul 16, 5:59 AM	UNHUnitedhealth Group Inc.	BULLISH	Other	$445.79	-5.0%	Stopped
Jul 16, 1:41 AM	TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co LTD	BULLISH	Other	$423.48	-5.9%	Stopped
Jul 16, 1:07 AM	NUENucor Corp	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$233.51	-1.2%	Flat
Jul 15, 4:55 PM	FRMIFermi Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$6.26	-3.4%	Flat
Jul 15, 4:31 PM	PRQRProQR Therapeutics N.v.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$1.77	-5.7%	not graded
Jul 15, 2:42 PM	ECATBlackRock Esg Capital Allocation Term Trust	BULLISH	Other	$15.65	-3.3%	Stopped
Jul 15, 11:34 AM	NXSTNexstar Media Group, Inc.	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$187.29	-1.9%	Flat
Jul 15, 7:40 AM	JNJJohnson & Johnson	BULLISH	Other	$248.94	-0.1%	not graded
Jul 15, 7:18 AM	GOOGLAlphabet Inc.	BULLISH	Other	$357.63	+3.7%	Target hit
Jul 15, 7:01 AM	DOCNDigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$120.01	-0.9%	Flat
Jul 15, 6:08 AM	INFQInfleqtion, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$10.64	-14.8%	Target hit
Jul 15, 6:08 AM	PWRLPowerlaw Corp	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$13.06	-5.2%	Flat
Jul 15, 1:06 AM	PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.	BULLISH	M&A target	$47.45	+17.0%	Target hit
Jul 15, 1:02 AM	ASMLAsml Holding NV	BULLISH	Other	$1806.80	-3.8%	Flat
Jul 14, 10:07 PM	FCXFreeport-Mcmoran Inc.	BEARISH	Policy / macro	$61.95	-5.5%	Target hit
Jul 14, 4:31 PM	TRINTrinity Capital Inc.	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$17.65	+1.4%	Flat
Jul 14, 2:49 PM	CVSCVS Health Corp	BEARISH	Enforcement	$105.57	+1.8%	Flat
Jul 14, 2:47 PM	GSGoldman Sachs Group Inc.	BULLISH	Other	$1129.38	-3.0%	Stopped
Jul 14, 2:43 PM	LCIDLucid Group, Inc.	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$4.59	+29.8%	Stopped
Jul 14, 2:23 PM	PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.	BULLISH	Other	$135.22	-2.1%	Flat
Jul 14, 12:57 PM	NVDANvidia Corp	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$210.67	-1.6%	Flat
Jul 14, 11:32 AM	BABoeing Co	BULLISH	Other	$219.69	-2.6%	Flat
Jul 14, 10:22 AM	IONSIonis Pharmaceuticals Inc.	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$55.98	-2.4%	Flat
Jul 14, 9:25 AM	SPYS&P 500 ETF	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$751.12	-0.1%	not graded
Jul 14, 7:23 AM	IBMInternational Business Machines Corp	BEARISH	Other	$237.88	-8.8%	Target hit
Jul 14, 7:02 AM	QBTSD-Wave Quantum Inc.	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$18.74	-9.7%	Target hit
Jul 14, 6:04 AM	ANROAlto Neuroscience, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$28.00	-2.4%	Flat
Jul 14, 2:29 AM	UMCUnited Microelectronics Corp	BULLISH	Other	$23.36	-9.0%	Stopped
Jul 13, 6:39 PM	CVXChevron Corp	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$182.52	-0.5%	Flat
Jul 13, 6:23 PM	DOWDow Inc.	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$30.36	-2.2%	Flat
Jul 13, 5:24 PM	ERASErasca, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$17.52	+11.3%	Stopped
Jul 13, 4:32 PM	REFIChicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.	BULLISH	M&A target	$10.71	+0.1%	not graded
Jul 13, 4:07 PM	AIIORobo.ai Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$3.96	+14.7%	Flat
Jul 13, 12:35 PM	TDGTransDigm Group Inc.	BEARISH	M&A target	$1230.73	+0.1%	not graded
Jul 13, 10:31 AM	HAOHaoxi Health Technology Ltd	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$0.26	-11.0%	Flat
Jul 13, 8:32 AM	HUNHuntsman Corp	BULLISH	M&A target	$11.00	+5.5%	Target hit
Jul 13, 7:17 AM	TCBKTrico Bancshares /	BULLISH	M&A target	$53.59	+12.1%	Target hit
Jul 10, 8:20 PM	AAPLApple Inc.	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$314.97	-0.0%	not graded
Jul 10, 7:35 PM	MUMicron Technology Inc.	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$977.20	+0.6%	Flat
Jul 10, 10:35 AM	CVXChevron Corp	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$174.63	+4.3%	Target hit
Jul 9, 5:07 PM	RMAXRe/Max Holdings, Inc.	BULLISH	M&A target	$11.06	-4.2%	Flat
Jul 9, 5:01 PM	PROPPrairie Operating Co.	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$0.79	-7.7%	Target hit
Jul 9, 9:01 AM	SBEVSplash Beverage Group, Inc.	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$0.18	-16.9%	Target hit
Jul 9, 8:13 AM	RXTRackspace Technology, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$6.10	-28.3%	Target hit
Jul 9, 6:02 AM	KODKEastman Kodak Co	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$8.10	+0.6%	Flat
Jul 9, 6:01 AM	BOTRoboStrategy, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$33.81	-4.1%	Flat
Jul 8, 5:07 PM	GPROGoPro, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$0.78	-6.5%	Target hit
Jul 8, 4:45 PM	GNKGenco Shipping & Trading LTD	BULLISH	M&A target	$25.16	-3.4%	Stopped
Jul 8, 4:32 PM	SDOTSadot Group Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$22.00	+6.7%	Flat
Jul 8, 4:14 PM	TARSTarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$67.73	-5.3%	Target hit
Jul 8, 4:12 PM	LEVILevi Strauss & Co	BULLISH	Other	$23.00	+6.0%	Target hit
Jul 8, 4:06 PM	AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd.	BULLISH	M&A target	$32.28	+0.7%	Flat
Jul 8, 9:30 AM	AXTIAxt Inc.	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$58.45	-2.1%	Flat
Jul 8, 8:33 AM	NSA	BULLISH	M&A target	$44.51	+0.6%	Flat
Jul 7, 5:14 PM	EBAYEbay Inc.	BULLISH	M&A target	$114.96	+2.1%	Flat
Jul 7, 5:14 PM	IRDMIridium Communications Inc.	BULLISH	M&A target	$51.00	-0.8%	Flat
Jul 7, 5:09 PM	IPXIperionx Ltd	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$26.28	-9.2%	Target hit
Jul 7, 5:00 PM	TOIOncology Institute, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$5.80	+0.9%	Flat
Jul 7, 4:47 PM	RMIXSuncrete, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$20.55	-8.0%	Target hit
Jul 7, 4:32 PM	XMAXXMax Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$8.72	+1.0%	Flat
Jul 7, 4:18 PM	COTYCoty Inc.	BEARISH	Other	$2.20	+1.8%	Flat
Jul 7, 4:09 PM	FCELFuelcell Energy Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$22.85	+0.7%	Flat
Jul 7, 8:25 AM	TMToyota Motor Corp/	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$182.00	-2.7%	Stopped
Jul 7, 6:01 AM	SOLSSolstice Advanced Materials Inc.	BULLISH	M&A target	$68.83	-9.8%	Stopped
Jul 7, 1:00 AM	LMTLockheed Martin Corp	BULLISH	Policy / macro	n/a	-3.2%	Stopped
Jul 6, 5:25 PM	ABRArbor Realty Trust Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$5.03	-2.2%	Flat
Jul 6, 5:08 PM	RIVNRivian Automotive, Inc. / DE	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$18.95	+6.3%	Stopped
Jul 6, 4:50 PM	WMTWalmart Inc.	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$110.24	+2.6%	Target hit
Jul 6, 4:35 PM	COURCoursera, Inc.	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$5.93	-3.2%	Flat
Jul 6, 4:33 PM	SEISolaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$67.49	-1.8%	Flat
Jul 6, 3:05 PM	XOMExxonMobil Holdings Corp	BEARISH	Policy / macro	n/a	+3.9%	Stopped
Jul 6, 9:14 AM	ESIElement Solutions Inc.	BULLISH	M&A target	$44.85	-5.6%	Stopped
Jul 6, 6:20 AM	CCRN	BULLISH	M&A target	n/a	+0.0%	not graded
Jul 2, 4:36 PM	BOXLBoxlight Corp	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$4.79	-1.0%	Flat
Jul 2, 4:21 PM	AAAlcoa Corp	BULLISH	M&A target	$48.68	+0.7%	Flat
Jul 2, 4:17 PM	NAVINavient Corp	BEARISH	Other	$8.54	-5.4%	Target hit
Jul 2, 4:08 PM	ABVXAbivax S.a.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$144.65	-1.7%	Flat
Jul 2, 4:03 PM	AHCOAdaptHealth Corp	BEARISH	Other	$10.56	-3.9%	Target hit
Jul 2, 1:49 PM	LEUCentrus Energy Corp	BULLISH	Other	$159.00	+9.6%	Target hit
Jul 2, 8:23 AM	THRMGentherm Inc.	BULLISH	M&A target	n/a	+2.7%	Target hit
Jul 2, 6:14 AM	OUSTOuster, Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$57.98	-14.0%	Target hit
Jul 2, 6:04 AM	NGNENeurogene Inc.	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$34.17	+7.7%	Stopped
Jul 2, 4:06 AM	HONHoneywell International Inc.	BULLISH	Policy / macro	$222.47	+3.3%	Target hit
Jul 1, 5:37 PM	CRSPCRISPR Therapeutics AG	BULLISH	Other	$55.25	+8.7%	Target hit

How the scoring works · and why you can trust it

Complete by construction. This page is generated from the same alert log that sends subscriber emails. Every directional alert since July 1, 2026 is in the ledger; there is no separate, hand-edited dataset.
Timing-honest entry. The entry price is the live market price at the moment the alert was sent, not that day’s close, so the score reflects what a subscriber acting on the alert could actually see.
Matched window, mechanical exit. Each alert is graded over the window that catalyst takes to price in (a day or two for a market shock or deal, a few sessions for slower events, about a month for insider buying). The first close to reach a symmetric, volatility-scaled band decides it; if neither side is reached, the window’s final close does. The rule is fixed in advance, so we never pick a better exit after the fact.
Unreadable outcomes are shown, not hidden. When a stock barely moved (under 0.5%) or trades too thinly for the move to mean anything, the row stays visible but is excluded from the hit rate, in both directions, so exclusions can’t flatter the numbers.
We only grade calls we actually make. When an event type’s own record shows no directional edge, we stop calling a direction on it and send it as an informational heads-up instead, with no bullish/bearish call. Those never enter the hit-rate, because we didn’t make a call to grade. This tightens automatically as the record grows.
Why the ledger starts July 1, 2026. That’s the day the current screening pipeline went live. Earlier alerts came from an older system; their verified wins can appear in the showcase above (always from recorded outcomes), but the ledger grades only the system you would be subscribing to today.
Alerts appear here only once graded. A call becomes public after its window resolves, never while it is still developing. Subscribers get every alert the moment it fires.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Directional scoring measures a catalyst-matched window on daily closing prices and does not reflect fees, slippage, taxes, or execution. InsiderWatch is an informational service based on publicly available information only and is not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Outcomes are scored automatically against public market data by our own systems and are not independently audited.