We Said It Before the Move.

What $10,000 Following Every Alert Looks Like.

One example $10,000 balance, split evenly across every alert open at the time, replayed day by day from our recorded outcomes, next to the same $10,000 simply holding the S&P 500. The gray bars show new positions entering; the blue strip shows how many alerts the balance was spread across.

Median speed: alerts go out 2 minutes after the source publishes.

How this is calculated: both lines start at $10,000 on July 1, 2026, and each alert becomes a position on its entry day (an alert sent after market close enters on the next trading day) and closes at its graded exit, win or lose - no discretion, nothing picked after the fact. The green line takes every scored alert, splitting the balance equally across all open positions and rebalancing daily. The blue line is one disciplined account: each alert gets 10% of the portfolio paid from cash, positions are held untouched to their exits, and when cash runs out the next alerts are skipped in strict arrival order (305 skipped so far) - the skips use no hindsight, so the line cannot cherry-pick winners. Both are hypothetical illustrations: entries use the price recorded when the alert was sent (overnight gaps on after-hours alerts are not captured), and fees, slippage, and taxes are excluded. 419 of 423 positions are drawn from their recorded daily closes. The other 4 were graded before daily closes were recorded and are drawn as a smooth line between entry and exit, so the drawdown figure understates the day-to-day swings on those. Not investment advice or an offer of performance.

+80.0%

$ADTXCALLED BEARISH

Flagged a Nasdaq delisting warning

ADTX fell 80.0% after we called it · Jun 24

+4.8%

$GOOGLCALLED BULLISH

Called Google bullish on Trump's EU tariff threat

GOOGL rose 4.8% after we called it · Jun 26

+8.7%

$CRSPCALLED BULLISH

Called CRISPR bullish on an FDA label expansion

CRSP rose 8.7% after we called it · Jul 1

+35.5%

$NVCTCALLED BEARISH

Flagged a dilutive share offering

NVCT fell 35.5% after we called it · Jun 29

+3.3%

$HONCALLED BULLISH

Called Honeywell bullish on a policy move

HON rose 3.3% after we called it · Jul 2

+3.9%

$AMCCALLED BEARISH

Flagged dilution risk at AMC

AMC fell 3.9% after we called it · Jun 23

Green number = the size of the move in the direction we called.

The Record, Cut Deeper

How the Signal Breaks Down

The kept-calls ledger read a few more ways: whether the calls add up over time, where the model’s stated confidence earns it, which company sizes the signal reads best, and how fast alerts follow their source. Every cut below, including the running-total line, counts only the calls today’s rules would still make - the same set behind the headline hit rate.

Most Services Show You Their Winners. We Publish Everything.

Every alert we send joins the ledger below once its window closes: hits, misses, and the ones too small to grade. That’s how you know the wins above are real. The full grading method, entry price, windows, bands and exclusions, is documented on the methodology page.

209 alerts still inside their grading window. The ledger updates automatically as each one resolves.

The Full Ledger · every alert since July 1, 2026, misses included

Hit rate

58%244 of 423 calls

Every call our rules make, graded against real prices, misses included. A call counts once its whole grading window has closed, so a quick early win is never counted ahead of the slow calls sent the same week. Calls sent under rules we have since retired stay in the ledger below but are not counted.

Versus the S&P 500

+2.0%per call · 245 of 423 calls beat the index

The hit rate only asks whether the direction was right. This asks how much better each call did than the S&P 500 over the exact days it was held, so a big win counts for more than a small one and the market’s own move is taken out. A bearish call is compared with betting against the index. Guessing at random scores about zero here. Median call: +1.9%.

Scored

423

Still developing

209

Median move captured

+1.9%

Avg move per signal

+1.9%

How the numbers work: every alert is measured from the price when it was sent (that day’s close for the earliest alerts, before send-time prices were recorded) across the window that kind of catalyst takes to price in, not a single next day. Within that window we take a first-touch read: the first close to reach a favorable move counts as the thesis playing out (Target hit), the first to reach an equal-sized adverse move counts against us (Stopped), and if neither is reached the alert is graded on the window’s final close (Flat). The band is symmetric and scaled to each stock’s own volatility, so it can’t flatter the result. Alerts whose stock barely moved (under 0.5%), traded too thinly to read cleanly, or stopped trading entirely are recorded but kept out of the hit rate. Insider sell-cluster alerts are also kept out of the headline rate: informative insider selling plays out over months (they still appear in the breakdown and ledger below). The current-rules figure reruns these same grades counting only the calls today’s tighter rules would still make; every graded call, kept or not, stays visible in the ledger below.

• Insider buying233 scored52% hit+1.1%
• Insider sell cluster52 scored58% hit+3.7%
• Offering / dilution41 scored61% hit+3.3%
• Other40 scored73% hit+4.5%
• Government contract26 scored50% hit+0.1%
• Clinical readout24 scored50% hit+0.0%
• M&A target24 scored54% hit+0.6%
• Activist stake23 scored43% hit-1.6%
• Distress / delisting15 scored67% hit+2.4%
• Trading-house macro call14 scored50% hit-0.2%
• Insider accumulation13 scored54% hit+1.8%
• Enforcement10 scored60% hit+2.2%
• Policy / macro8 scored63% hit+0.9%
• Earnings result3 scored33% hit-0.9%

Sent (ET)	Ticker	Call	Event	At send	Move	Result
Sep 16, 5:16 PM	BURU	BEARISH	Distress / delisting	$1.08	-4.5%	Flat
Sep 16, 4:33 PM	TH	BULLISH	Insider buying	$19.27	+12.9%	Target hit
Sep 16, 4:32 PM	HALO	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$106.00	+6.1%	Stopped
Sep 16, 7:07 AM	IBM	BULLISH	Government contract	$249.50	-4.8%	Stopped
Sep 16, 1:46 AM	HAL	BULLISH	Government contract	$35.78	-3.5%	Stopped
Sep 15, 4:52 PM	NOC	BULLISH	Government contract	$531.25	-0.7%	Flat
Sep 15, 1:15 PM	DVLT	BULLISH	Government contract	$0.15	+16.3%	Target hit
Sep 15, 6:47 AM	DCO	BULLISH	Government contract	$164.50	+4.3%	Target hit
Sep 15, 6:29 AM	TRMD	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$33.05	+10.7%	Stopped
Sep 15, 6:08 AM	PURR	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$11.65	+20.9%	Stopped
Sep 14, 6:39 PM	LMT	BULLISH	Government contract	$529.94	+1.5%	Flat
Sep 14, 5:01 PM	HOS	BULLISH	Government contract	$8.49	+4.2%	Target hit
Sep 14, 10:51 AM	BA	BULLISH	Government contract	$208.87	-3.3%	Stopped
Sep 14, 9:05 AM	MT	BEARISH	Other	$71.60	+5.0%	Stopped
Sep 14, 6:49 AM	TYRA	BEARISH	Offering / dilution	$22.35	+12.2%	Stopped
Sep 14, 4:03 AM	BNTX	BULLISH	Clinical readout	$99.50	-2.8%	Stopped
Sep 13, 9:02 AM	ONC	BULLISH	Clinical readout	$345.56	+2.4%	Target hit
Sep 13, 7:55 AM	GILD	BEARISH	Clinical readout	$143.58	+2.9%	Stopped
Sep 13, 7:14 AM	SMMT	BULLISH	Clinical readout	$17.70	-2.3%	Flat
Sep 11, 5:37 PM	AMH	BULLISH	Activist stake	$31.48	-0.3%	not graded
Sep 11, 5:19 PM	NVO	BEARISH	Other	$43.10	-3.2%	Target hit
Sep 11, 5:19 PM	ADBE	BEARISH	Earnings result	$252.03	+5.4%	Stopped
Sep 11, 4:12 PM	USAR	BULLISH	Activist stake	$15.57	-3.0%	Flat
Sep 11, 10:34 AM	ABBV	BULLISH	Clinical readout	$256.80	+2.4%	Target hit
Sep 10, 9:00 PM	ATEC	BULLISH	Insider buying	$9.01	+19.7%	Target hit

See all 778 scored alerts